El Nino is a weather phenomenon that occurs due to an increase in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean. According to the latest analysis regarding the development of El Nino by Kexin Li through the International Centre for Climate and Environmental Sciences, based on historical climate data from previous research, the probability of El Nino will increase from 56% to 79%. This means that the impact of El Nino will be felt more strongly next year. This event will trigger a heat wave on land, drought, and forest fires.
Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika Indonesia (BMKG) estimates that the El Nino phenomenon has the potential to last until early 2024. The peak of the El Nino phenomenon, which will take place in August–October 2023, triggers extreme hot weather and has an impact on long droughts due to reduced rainfall. Drought has an impact on the clean water crisis and the risk of forest and land fires.In several parts of Indonesia, it has started to rain, but in several areas, such as NTB, NTT, Eastern Java Island, and Bali, it is still dry. BBMKG Region III Denpasar stated that five regions in Bali, namely Buleleng, Bangli, Karangasem, Tabanan, and Badung, experienced long days without rain. Based on the Bali Province BPBD data recap, during August–September 2023, there were 75 disasters that were the impact of the El Nino event. This disaster is dominated by land fires, forest fires, empty land, trees, and gardens. On October 1, 2023, 1.3 hectares of land were burned in the Mount Batur Nature Tourist Park. cr : Microsoft Bing AIThere is no doubt that the El Nino disaster threatens to endanger biodiversity. According to analysis, int he next 50 to 100 years, there is a chance that extreme temperature changes will become extinct. According to scientific estimates, biodiversity on Earth will be negatively impacted by climate change, beginning at the gene, species, and ecosystem levels. Not an exception are insects, which are tiny creatures with numerous significant functions in the ecosystem of the planet. Insects, particularly those with cold blood, are particularly vulnerable to temperature changes because they lack the ability to control their body temperature in the event of severe temperature fluctuations. cr : Microsoft Bing AIPoikilotherms, or insects with cold blood, are fireflies. The body temperature of the firefly rises with elevated environmental temperatures. Fireflies rely on heat because they are cold-blooded insects. Warm, muggy weather is the ideal habitat for fireflies. Fireflies will have an easier time finding their prey at night if it rains during the day. Around 2,000 different species of fireflies can be found in the globe. The firefly life cycle contributes to preserving the harmony of the ecosystem. If a lot of fireflies perish, the number of other species in the same habitat will also decline, resulting in an unhealthy ecosystem. As natural indicators of clean air, clean water, and healthy soil, fireflies play a crucial role in a healthy ecosystem. They are also a key indicator of an ecosystem’s decline.Our project to conserve fireflies in Bali has been greatly impacted by El Nino, which has been occurring from August to October 2023. At Rumah Konservasi Kunang-Kunang located at Taro village, we are looking very closely the direct impact of El Nino to fireflies life span. cr : Microsoft Bing AITemperature increases are expected to have a disproportionate impact on spring and summer months compared to autumn and winter (Delaware Division of Fish and Wildlife 2015). Temperature affects breeding, egg and larval success during development, as well as habitat suitability (Bauer et al. 2013; Evans et al. 2019). Also, any increased incidence of drought due to persistent heat will exacerbate declining firefly populations due to desiccation (Evans et al. 2019). Firefly eggs and larvae are also susceptible to changing environmental conditions, desiccating in too dry microhabitats or moulding in too humid conditions (Evans et al. 2019). Furthermore, firefly larvae take years to grow up, so a stochastic environmental change, such as a single flood or weather event, can affect a population of fireflies and larvae for years (Faust 2017).So, How the weather effects fireflies? Based on our fireflies nursery weather’s October 2023 table, it can be seen that the highest temperature in the nursery during October was 33 ̊C with a humidity of 52% RH on October 20, 2023. The increase in temperature in the nursery on this date is closely related to the number of moulting larvae, number of death larvae, and the number of missing larvae. On October 20, 2023, 6 larvae moulted and 4 larvae died. On October 13, 2023 with a temperature of 32.5 ̊C there were 12 larvae moulting and 5 larvae dying. On October 28, with a temperature of 31 ̊C, there were 11 moulting larvae, 1 missing larva, and 5 dead larvae. Then, on October 16, 2023 there were 6 larvae lost, 4 larvae dead, and 9 larvae moulting at a temperature of 30 ̊C.Air temperature and humidity, according to the interpretation presented above, have a significant impact on the number of larvae that moult, die, and are lost. Apart from that, the weather has an impact on the development of cocoons (pupa stage). Temperatures in October are extreme hot with dry-comfortable humidity. Because larvae must moult in order to survive, the transition from larva to pupa stage happens faster when the temperature is warm enough. Adult firefly lifespans are also linked to high temperatures. cr : Microsoft Bing AIA study of kindergarten observations, fireflies typically have a short life span when it is hot outside.The research of Tracy R., et al. in the journal Adult firefly abundance is linked to weather during the larval stage the previous year; Much is known about firefly’s brief adult phase. Fireflies spend a relatively long period under the soil surface. Climatic and soil conditions can affect eggs, larvae, and pupae directly, as well as indirectly through predators, competitors, and prey items. Fireflies are usually in the larval stage during the winter and hibernate underground until they emerge in the spring. Larvae spend the winter underground, mature in the spring, and emerge in the early summer. Climatic conditions during the early life stages of this iconic species are therefore relevant to their hypothesised decline within the context of global warming.Climate has a non-linear effect on adult firefly abundance during both the larval and adult stages. Maximum winter and spring temperatures, as well as average precipitation in the 20-month period preceding the observations, had the greatest impact on firefly adult abundance. Low maximum soil moisture during the 5-19 months preceding the observations had a negative effect on adult abundance, while high maximum soil moisture had a positive effect.The conditions that determine fluctuations within that cycle are complex, according to Elizabeth Pennisi in How climate change may affect fireflies: Summer temperatures must be warm for fireflies to emerge, but peak emergence can be delayed by up to two weeks depending on whether conditions are wet or dry. However, more research on the correlation between weather and each stage of the firefly life cycle is required. CITATION:Evans, Tracy & Salvatore, Donald & van de Pol, Martijn & Musters, Cornelis. (2018). Adult firefly abundance is linked to weather during the larval stage in the previous year: Firefly abundance and weather. Ecological Entomology. 44. 10.1111/een.12702.https://www.science.org/content/article/how-climate-change-may-affect-fireflieshttps://pusatkrisis.kemkes.go.id/dampak-el-nino-dan-la-nina-pada-cuaca-di-indonesiahttps://www.goodgoodgood.co/articles/how-to-help-fireflieshttps://www.rri.co.id/daerah/358653/fakta-el-nino-dan-dampaknya-bagi-balihttps://www.detik.com/bali/berita/d-6963571/bali-dilanda-75-bencana-dampak-el-nino-sepanjang-agustus-oktober
So, How the weather effects fireflies? Based on our fireflies nursery weather’s October 2023 table, it can be seen that the highest temperature in the nursery during October was 33 ̊C with a humidity of 52% RH on October 20, 2023. The increase in temperature in the nursery on this date is closely related to the number of moulting larvae, number of death larvae, and the number of missing larvae. On October 20, 2023, 6 larvae moulted and 4 larvae died. On October 13, 2023 with a temperature of 32.5 ̊C there were 12 larvae moulting and 5 larvae dying. On October 28, with a temperature of 31 ̊C, there were 11 moulting larvae, 1 missing larva, and 5 dead larvae. Then, on October 16, 2023 there were 6 larvae lost, 4 larvae dead, and 9 larvae moulting at a temperature of 30 ̊C.Air temperature and humidity, according to the interpretation presented above, have a significant impact on the number of larvae that moult, die, and are lost. Apart from that, the weather has an impact on the development of cocoons (pupa stage). Temperatures in October are extreme hot with dry-comfortable humidity. Because larvae must moult in order to survive, the transition from larva to pupa stage happens faster when the temperature is warm enough. Adult firefly lifespans are also linked to high temperatures.